Black cat crossing

Welcome to the other side of the election, and another week of Thailand Report. Looks like we’re in for a few weeks of wrangling, as the final results of the election and various legal decisions have been postponed.

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Coalition competition

Amidst confusion over electoral math, coalitions building has begun. Pheu Thai is claiming the right to form a government. The party has joined with six others to form an anti-junta coalition, including the Future Forward, Pheu Chart, Seri Ruam, Prachachart, Thai People Power, and New Economics parties. Together, they claim they are able to form a simple majority in parliament.

Phalang Pracharat said that the full results have yet to be released, but that they are entitled to govern due to winning in the popular vote. They have not yet named coalition partners.

After numerous delays in the announcement of results and fluctuating numbers, the Electoral Commission is now saying that final results will be announced on May 9.

Generally, new parties were clear winners in the election. Phalang Pracharat appears to have won the popular vote with around 7.6 million votes. Future Forward had a very strong showing with 5.2 million votes.

Now sure to be the focus of all coalition predictions, Bhumjaithai also did well. They remain officially undecided, and so are in a strong position to play kingmaker.

As for the two big parties of elections past, Pheu Thai won the most constituency seats for any single party and around 7.1 million votes. A major challenge for the party was that they only contested 250 or 350 seats, leaving the rest to now-dissolved Thai Raksa Chart. The Democrat party suffered humiliating results, even in traditional strongholds. Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva resigned in response to the party’s dismal results. In his resignation, Abhisit indicated that remaining Democrat MPs and leadership would seek a way to join the next government. Khun Korn ruled out joining the Pheu Thai-led coalition.

Election watchers were almost uniformly surprised by the comparatively low voter turnout, which was around 65 percent. Prior to the election, turnout was expected to be around 80 percent.

Adding to the suspense, Future Forward’s indictment decision in the cybercrime case has been postponed until April 26.

What is known is that for some time at least, Prayut’s regular Friday addresses have come to an end.

Electoral Commission credibility further in doubt

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra penned an op-ed in the New York Times saying that there are multiple instances of electoral irregularities. He is saying the vote was “robbed” from the people, in a election rigged to favor Phalang Pracharat and Prayuth. Pheu Thai said that it is considering a legal challenge.

Numerous sources and observers have noted election irregularities. The Bangkok-based Asian Network for Free Elections said that the “environment at large is heavily tilted to benefit the military junta."

One of those irregularities was in Sikhiu district, where officials papered over the details of a Future Forward Party candidate. Overall, there were nearly two million invalidated ballots. These included ballots from New Zealand that were voided due to not arriving in time.

Social media users were active ahead of the election and played a prominent role, according to one analytics firm. But as the results were announced deep cynicism set in, particularly among the young. Thai netizens took to the internet to question electoral authorities. #กกตโป๊ะแตก, #โกงเลือกตั้ง, and #กกตไม่มีเครื่องคิดเลข (#ECBusted, #ElectionFraud, and #ECHasNoCalculator) were three of the top four Twitter trends. Netizens also enjoyed the black cat with great timing.

The US said that there were positive signs with the election, but also urged a probe into irregularities. The United Kingdom and the European Union echoed calls for Thai authorities to look into reported irregularities.

Economic impact

The delay in the announcement of election results may pose a risk for Thailand’s economy. Anticipation of political tensions have investors spooked, with some $730m of stocks and bonds moved from the country since the start of the year.

A prolonged political power struggle will add to existing challenges, ranging from falling productivity to a rapidly aging society.

More to read

People in Hong Kong’s “Little Thailand” are worried that plans by the city’s redevelopment agency will change the area’s character and make it unaffordable.

Air Asia apologized after the airline was accused of promoting sex tourism when its “Get off in Thailand” ads showed around Brisbane.

A Thai supermarket is getting praise for using banana leaves rather than plastic to wrap its fresh food.